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SCORECARD EXPLAINED WHAT YOU DON'T GET FROM A NEWSPAPER OR NEWSLETTER The numbers below represent a typical daily Mutual Fund Tracker Market Scorecard. Negative numbers are considered bad news and always have a value of ZERO, except when the NYSE is the dominant market. The NYSE gets one point for that dubious distinction. Dubious because it is much more difficult to make money in the stock market when the NYSE is dominant. The NYSE is the dominant market when the SMLG component in the scorecard below is a negative number. The Scorecard is recalculated every day to show CURRENT market conditions and the numbers will change as the market conditions change. See below how those condiions are calculated daily.===================================== As of 03/25/09 The NYSE environment is Negative The NASDAQ environment is Negative The NASDAQ market is Dominant SMLG= 9.13 3 US30A= -335.42 NEG NEG BTFTA= 66.81 1 1 LRG15= 0.01 3 SML15= 0.03 3 NS19V= 19.12 2 NS39V= 20.12 1 NY19V= 17.56 2 NY39V= 13.86 1 NSONE= -1533 NEG NSTWO= -2033 NYONE= -1016 NEG NYTWO= -1516 NYDIF= -73.97 NEG NSDIF= -4.51 NEG NYSE Score= 7/13 NASDAQ Score= 10/15 Allocation= 50-75% Allocation= 50-75% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The maximum score The maximum score possible for the possible for the NYSE is 13. NASDAQ is 15.
Below are the current prices of the most common indexes and the percentage above or below their (E)xponential (M)oving (A)verages for the number of days indicated.
Index Description 03/25/09 25 EMA 50 EMA 120 EMA 200 EMA NYC-N NYSE Composite 5127.00 +5.72 +2.64 -8.97 -18.84 $INDU Dow Industrial Index 7749.81 +4.99 +1.69 -8.28 -16.31 DJ-20 Dow Transportation Ind 2648.66 +2.22 -4.19 -18.54 -27.16 DJ-15 DJ 15 Utility Index 333.13 +2.15 -1.31 -9.05 -15.31 VLE-I Valueline Arithmetic 1312.12 +8.81 +6.19 -4.96 -14.56 SP-CP S&P 500 Composite 813.88 +5.27 +2.34 -8.29 -17.31 OTC-C NASDAQ Composite 1528.95 +5.54 +4.08 -5.00 -13.68 NDX-X NASDAQ-100 Index 1236.66 +5.11 +4.50 -3.33 -11.62 WIL-5 Wilshre 5000 Index 8255.20 +5.34 +2.59 -7.97 -17.06 RUA-I Russell 3000 469.72 +5.31 +2.42 -8.30 -17.45 RUT-I Russell 2000 426.52 +5.37 +1.44 -10.56 -19.70 RUI-I Russell 1000 442.08 +5.31 +2.50 -8.12 -17.27 CNPI- Consumer Price Index 212.19 +0.33 +0.40 -0.06 -0.37 CRBI- CRB Futures Price Indx 372.46 +3.49 +3.64 -2.15 -8.31 STBI- Shearson Treas Bd Idx 17665.77 +0.44 +0.32 +2.07 +4.64 US30- US Treas 30 Yr Bd Yld 3.73 +3.02 +5.20 +2.70 -2.24 US10- US Treas 10 Yr Bd Yld 2.81 +0.32 +0.19 -5.98 -12.48 US05- US Treas 5 Yr Yield 1.84 +1.65 +1.15 -9.15 -19.88 XOI-I AMEX Oil Index 903.22 +4.77 +2.59 -5.57 -13.33 XAU-I AMEX Gold & Silver 139.41 +10.66 +14.07 +14.80 +8.82 DXY-Z US Dollar Index 83.86 -2.49 -2.32 -0.27 +1.86 $NIKI Tokyo Nikkei 8480.00 +8.75 +7.42 -2.98 -13.40 $HKHS Hong Kong Hang Seng 13622.10 +5.61 +3.90 -6.33 -16.26 FTSE- London Fin Times 30/10 3900.25 +1.30 -1.36 -8.41 -14.87 - Price is below the EMA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- CURRENT SCORE AND ASSET ALLOCATON: ================================== The current point score for each market alludes to the current risk in each market. The allocation percent associated with the current score means, if you have X amount of dollars to invest in the stock market, that is the percentage which should be put at risk in FUNDS or STOCKS that are associated with either the NYSE or the NASDAQ markets when the score is in the ranges indicated in the INVESTMENT ALLOCATION MODEL below, with much consideration being given to the dominant market's ENVIRONMENT being positive or negative. If you are in doubt, this is a very good guideline to follow. RISK ASSESSMENT AND ASSET MANAGEMENT =========================================== Risk Profile ------------ 0 to 5 points --> High Risk 6 to 10 points --> Medium Risk 11 to 15 points --> Low Risk INVESTMENT ALLOCATION ===================== In Negative In Positive Environment Environment Market Score Only Invest Only Invest -------------------------- --------------- --------------- 0 to 5 points--High Risk 0 to 25 percent 25 to 50 percent 6 to 10 points--Med. Risk 50 to 75 percent 75 to 100 percent 11 to 15 points--Low Risk 100 percent 100 percent The maximum score possible for the NYSE is 13. See the scorecard. The maximum score possible for the NASDAQ is 15. See the scorecard. The Preferred Time To Be Invested In The Market Is When The NASDAQ Is Dominant And The NASDAQ Environment Is POSITIVE. The Perfect Time To Be Invested In The Market Is When The Nasdaq Is DOMINANT And The Score Is 15, The NYSE Score Is 12, And The Environment For Both Markets Is Positive. -GENERAL RULE OF THUMB- YOU SHOULD AVOID TECH FUNDS/STOCKS WHEN THE NYSE IS THE DOMINANT MARKET. ESPECIALLY IF THE NASDAQ ENVIRONMENT IS NEGATIVE. WHEN THOSE CONDITIONS EXIST AND IF YOU ARE A CONSERVATIVE INVESTOR, EXERCISE CAUTION BY SWITCHING OUT OF NASDAQ RELATED STOCKS AND/OR FUNDS AND INTO MONEY MARKET FUNDS FOR SAFETY. HOW THE NASDAQ ENVIRONMENT IS DETERMINED (NSDIF) ------------------------------------------------ 02/20/09 02/19/09 02/18/09 02/17/09 02/13/09 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- Two Of The Following 3 Indicators Must Be Positive: Ema(otc-c, 19)-Ema(otc-c, 39) -19.22 -16.46 -13.23 -10.85 -8.16 99.78% of OTC Rtn when > 0 NSMCS - 1000 -1276.27 -1113.56 -984.95 -880.04 -795.88 78% Of OTC Rtn When Positive Or When Increasing In Value 30Y Bond -413.76 -423.04 -386.16 -391.86 -422.80 NYSE Return 5 Days Fwd: Avg 0.38% If Positive Avg 0.07% if negative The NASDAQ Environment Is NEGATIVE. HOW THE NYSE ENVIRONMENT IS DETERMINED (NYDIF) ---------------------------------------------- 02/20/09 02/19/09 02/18/09 02/17/09 02/13/09 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- Two Of The Following 3 Indicators Must Be Positive: Ema(nyc-n, 19)-Ema(nyc-n, 39) -148.63 -135.06 -122.87 -110.44 -96.10 70.78% of NYSE Return if > 0 NYMCS - 1000 -565.55 -266.85 -9.84 210.11 389.00 73% of NYSE Rtn when positive Or When Increasing In Value 30Y Bond -413.76 -423.04 -386.16 -391.86 -422.80 NYSE Return 5 Days Fwd: Avg 0.38% if positive Avg 0.07% if negative The NYSE Environment Is NEGATIVE. Below are three tables that display the daily 'VALUE' for each component of the Market Scorecard, the SCORE for the NASDAQ and the NYSE (NYC-I) and the status of the ENVIRONMENT for the NASDAQ and NYSE. Each component of the Market Scorecard is displayed for the last five market days. The way you interpret which market is dominant is with the SMLG component. SMLG stands for SMall cap and LarGe cap markets. Or in other words for the NASDAQ or NYC-I. If the VALUE for this component is POSITIVE, the NASDAQ is dominant and receives 3 points for the NASDAQ score. If the number is NEGATIVE, the NYSE is dominant and the NYSE receives 1 point for the NYSE score. The NASDAQ is heavier weighted for the scorecard because it is easier to make money in the stock market when the NASDAQ is dominant. The VALUE for each of the remaining components must be POSITIVE for each to receive points as stated above. Shown below the VALUES are the daily SCORES for each component and the TOTAL score for each market and below that the status of it's environment. When the VALUES, SCORES and ENVIRONMENT STATUS are displayed in this format, one can easily see the trend that is developing over the last six market days. Keep in mind that numbers increasing in value are GOOD. Even if the NASDAQ and NYSE McClellan Summation Index numbers (NSONE and NSTWO, NYONE and NYTWO) are negative, IF THEY ARE INCREASING IN VALUE AND ADVANCING TOWARD TURNING POSITIVE, THAT'S GOOD. However, if they continue to decline that is VERY bad. THE LAST 6 DAYS VALUES OF THE MARKET SCORECARD ============================================== 02/20/09 02/19/09 02/18/09 02/17/09 02/13/09 02/12/09 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- SMLG 56.98 54.18 54.36 51.51 47.80 45.73 US30A -413.76 -423.04 -386.16 -391.86 -422.80 -377.78 BFTFA -9.29 -10.58 -8.94 -11.52 -20.70 -19.12 LRG15 -0.00 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.12 0.13 SML15 -0.00 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.08 NS19V -10.74 -15.47 -4.75 -3.33 10.16 14.58 NS39V -7.25 -11.16 0.69 2.67 16.67 20.84 NY19V -31.78 -24.46 -20.34 -18.18 -5.77 -1.32 NY39V -38.42 -29.59 -24.31 -21.17 -7.85 -3.18 NSONE -1276.27 -1113.56 -984.95 -880.04 -795.88 -806.54 NSTWO -1776.27 -1613.56 -1484.95 -1380.04 -1295.88 -1306.54 NYONE -565.55 -266.85 -9.84 210.11 389.00 438.69 NYTWO -1065.55 -766.85 -509.84 -289.89 -111.00 -61.31 NYDIF -148.63 -135.06 -122.87 -110.44 -96.10 -94.42 NSDIF -19.22 -16.46 -13.23 -10.85 -8.16 -8.68 The NASDAQ Is The DOMINANT Market As Indicated By The Positive SMLG Component Above. This is the preferred time to be invested in the stock market. Especially when the NASDAQ environment is Positive. See below for status of the NASDAQ and NYSE Environments. THE CURRENT SCORE FOR EACH COMPONENT OF THE NASDAQ === ======= ===== === ==== ========= == === ====== 02/20/09 02/19/09 02/18/09 02/17/09 02/13/09 02/12/09 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- NASDAQ (SML Cap) 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 US30A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BFTFX 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 SML15 0.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 NSONE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NSTWO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NS19V 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 2.00 NS39V 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 ======================================================= Today's NASDAQ Scor 3.00 6.00 7.00 7.00 9.00 9.00 The NASDAQ Environment Is NEGATIVE. EXERCISE CAUTION! Maximum Investment: 0% to 25% (Of your investment capital) THE CURRENT SCORES FOR EACH COMPONENT OF THE NYSE === ======= ====== === ==== ========= == === ==== 02/20/09 02/19/09 02/18/09 02/17/09 02/13/09 02/12/09 -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- NYSE (LRG Cap) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 US30A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BFTFX 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 LRG15 0.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 NYONE 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 NYTWO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NY19V 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NY39V 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ======================================================= Today's NYSE Score 0.00 3.00 3.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 The NYSE Environment Is NEGATIVE. EXERCISE CAUTION Maximum Investment: 0% to 25% (Of your investment capital) For those interested in the math This is how the scorecard is calculated ======================================= The following sixteen symbols are used to calculate fifteen quantities which are then scored, as explained later, to provide answers to five basic questions. NYC-N The New York Composite OTC-C The Nasdaq Composite $NADV New York Advancing issues ADVQ Nasdaq Advancing issues $DECL New York Declining issues DECLQ Nasdaq Declining issues $UVOL New York Advancing volume UVOLQ Nasdaq Advancing volume $DVOL New York Declining volume DVOLQ Nasdaq Declining volume $NYNH New York New Highs NSNHQ Nasdaq New Highs $NYNL New York New Lows NSNLQ Nasdaq New Lows US30- 30 year bond yield BTFTX Benham Target 2015 bond 1) Which market is dominant, the NYSE or the NASDAQ ? 2) Is the NYSE environment Positive or Negative ? 3) Is the NASDAQ environment Positive or Negative ? 4) What is the score for the NYSE on a scale of 0 to 13 ? 5) What is the score for the NASDAQ on a scale of 0 to 15 ? Market Environment calculations ------------------------------- NYDIF = (19 day ema of NYC-N - 39 day ema of NYC-N) NSDIF = (19 day ema of OTC-C - 39 day ema of OTC-C) These values are the McClellan Price Oscillators. Market Dominance calculations ----------------------------- OTC-C A = ----- <-- commonly referred to as relative strength NYC-N (38 day ema of A - 76 day ema of A) B = 100 * ----------------------------------- (76 day ema of A) C = 20 day ema of B SMLG = 100 * (B - C) McClellan Summation Index calculations for NYSE issues ------------------------------------------------------ A = Running total of 100 * ($NADV - $DECL) <-- A/D issues line B = (19 day ema of A - 39 day ema of A) <-- McClellan Osc. C = Running total of B (Starting with 1000) <-- McClellan Sum. NYONE = C - 1000 NYTWO = C - 1500 McClellan Summation Index calculations for NASDAQ issues -------------------------------------------------------- A = Running total of 100 * (ADVQ - DECLQ) <-- A/D issues line B = (19 day ema of A - 39 day ema of A) <-- McClellan Osc. C = Running total of B (Starting with 1000) <-- McClellan Sum. NSONE = C - 1000 NSTWO = C - 1500 Moving average calculations for NYSE A/D volume line ---------------------------------------------------- A = Running total of .001 * ($UVOL - $DVOL) <-- A/D volume line B = 19 day ema of A C = 39 day ema of A NY19V = A - B NY39V = A - C Moving average calculations for NASDAQ A/D volume line ------------------------------------------------------ A = Running total of .001 * (UVOLQ - DVOLQ) <-- A/D volume line B = 19 day ema of A C = 39 day ema of A NS19V = A - B NS39V = A - C ================================================================= MACD calculations for NYSE highs/lows ------------------------------------- A = Running total of .001 * ($NYNH - $NYNL) <-- A/D hi/lo line B = (15 day ema of A - 30 day ema of A) <-- Oscillator C = 15 day ema of B <-- Smoothed osc. LRG15 = B - C <-- MACD 30 15 15 MACD for NASDAQ highs/lows -------------------------- A = Running total of .001 * (NSNHQ - NSNLQ) <-- A/D hi/lo line B = (15 day ema of A - 30 day ema of A) <-- Oscillator C = 15 day ema of B <-- Smoothed osc. SML15 = B - C <-- MACD 30 15 15 Interest rate environment calculations - Benham Zero coupon bond ---------------------------------------------------------------- BTFTA = 100 * (17 day ema of BTFTX - 47 day ema of BTFTX) Interest rate environment calculations - Yield on 30 year bond -------------------------------------------------------------- (13 day ema of US30- - 55 day ema of US30-) US30A = -10000 * --------------------------------------------- (55 day ema of US30-) ============================================================== Definition of Positive NYSE environment --------------------------------------- 1) 19/39 McClellan A/D Summation > 1000 i.e. NYONE > 0 2) US 30 year bond yield 13/55 crossover i.e. US30A > 0 3) NYSE Composite 19/39 crossover i.e. NYDIF > 0 If any two are positive, environment is positive. Definition of Positive NASDAQ environment ----------------------------------------- 1) 19/39 McClellan A/D Summation > 1000 i.e. NSONE > 0 2) US 30 year bond yield 13/55 crossover i.e. US30A > 0 3) OTC Composite 19/39 crossover i.e. NSDIF > 0 If any two are positive, environment is positive. =================================================== Market Scoring Rules Market Score -------------------- ============= 1) Dominant Index - SMLG NYSE NASDAQ 1 point if NYC-N is the dominant index 1 3 points if OTC-C is the dominant index 3 2) Interest Rates - BTFTA 1 point if Benham Target measure is positive 1 1 Interest Rates - US30A 2 points if US 30 Year Bond measure is positive 2 2 3) Advancing/Declining Issues - NYONE, NSONE 1 point if summation index > +1000 level 1 1 Advancing/Declining Issues - NYTWO, NSTWO 2 points if summation index > +1500 level 2 2 4) High/Low Issues - LRG15, SML15 3 points if 30,15,15 MACD of Hi/Lo summation 3 3 line is positive. 5) Up/Down Volume - NY39V, NS39V 1 point if Up/Down volume line is 1 1 greater than its 39 day ema. Up/Down Volume - NY19V, NS19V 2 points if Up/Down volume line is 2 2 greater than its 19 day ema. ============= Maximum Score Possible 13/13 15/15 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------